Kentucky Derby Contender Profile: Maxfield

Maxfield wasn’t supposed to win his debut September 14 at Churchill Downs. What channel is the Kentucky derby on.  Trainer Brendan Walsh understood he needed a talented colt, but Walsh was viewing the race as a starting point–an opportunity for Maxfield to obtain expertise.

Then Maxfield wrote his own script and overcame a slow start to win against the one-mile race with a powerful late rally. Live stream Kentucky derby, Three months after the Godolphin homebred followed with a dramatic triumph at the $500,000 Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland, a victory so stunning it brought to mind memories of Arazi’s fabled score at the 1991 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1).

“He is a really special horse.  Kentucky Derby coverage, I have been around a lot of good horses, and superior horses breathe a different atmosphere.  I believe this horse is correct there,” Walsh said.

Maxfield won the Breeders’ Futurity at the manner of a severe Kentucky Derby (G1) contender.  What channel is the Kentucky derby on, The colt broke gradually and settled close to the back of the pack , almost 10 lengths behind modest opening fractions of both:24.01 and:47.78.

But across the far turn, Maxfield unleashed a huge burst of acceleration.  Running as though he’d jumped into the race in the half-mile rod, Live stream Kentucky Derby, Maxfield sprinted past competitions on the far outside and roared into the lead at the top of the stretch.

This kind of early and broad rally would exhaust many horses, but Maxfield lasted his jog down the homestretch and powered clear to win from 5 1/2 lengths over the well-regarded gaming preferred Gouverneur Morris.  Kentucky Derby coverage, The success secured Maxfield 10 eligibility points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

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Although Maxfield missed the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) because of a hoof bruise, and subsequently underwent ankle surgery to remove a bone chip, he remains an integral contender for the 2020 Triple Crown. Live stream Kentucky derby,  As spectacular as he was at the 1 1/16-mile Breeders’ Futurity, he is even more successful negotiating 1 1/4 miles on the first Saturday in May.

Godolphin has started 11 horses in the Kentucky Derby since 1999, and not one has finished better than fourth. Kentucky Derby coverage, But with Maxfield the global racing operation might have its very best chance yet to win the roses.

The way to calculate fair chances for Kentucky Derby potential wagers

When considering a Kentucky Derby (G1) future bet, how can you draw the line between fair odds and odds too short to be worth the danger?

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It’s a multi-faceted query, determined by time, basic mathematics and personal opinion.  Shorter prices are somewhat more acceptable two or three months out from the Derby, What channel is the Kentucky derby on, once the key contenders are easier to identify.

But if you are seeking to place a future wager five months out from the Derby–state, when 2020 Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1 opens for business on November 28–you’ll want to need large chances before your place a bet. Live stream Kentucky derby.

There are so many factors to take into account.  A horse that appears promising as a juvenile may fail to progress within the winter.  A horse you have never heard of could burst on the scene in March and be a clear choice to win the Derby.  Kentucky Derby coverage, Or you might wager on a promising horse, watch him obstacle each obstacle on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, then tear your hair out when he scrapes with a hoof bruise two weeks ahead of the race.

So just how can you calculate fair Kentucky Derby chances this way out?  I suggest reviewing the previous 15 variants of the Kentucky Derby to determine which kind (s) of horses would be likely to prevail on the first Saturday in May.  What channel is the Kentucky derby on, I’d suggest using a bigger sample size, but the Kentucky Derby has evolved throughout time, also sampling Derbys from 25 or 30 decades ago would skew the results of the analysis.

Five of the previous 15 Derby winners (33 percent ) won a graded stakes race above a route distance (1 mile or longer) as a juvenile. Live stream Kentucky derby.

Nine of those last 15 Derby winners (60 percent ) failed to contest one ranked bets route race because of a juvenile.

Based on those rough trends, we can compute approximate fair chances for a Variety of Kinds of horses:

There is a 33 percent chance the Derby is going to probably be obtained by a horse that participates in a graded stakes path race as a juvenile.  There are 17 such races held in North America each year.  What channel is the Kentucky derby on, The odds of any graded stakes route winner prevailing from the Kentucky Derby are consequently 33% divided by 17, roughly 2%.  This translates into reasonable odds of 50-1.

There is a 20% likelihood of a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile contestant winning the Kentucky Derby. Live stream Kentucky derby, Since there were eight starters at the 2018 Juvenile, the odds of any 1 runner prevailing on the first Saturday in May are 20% divided by 8, or 2.5 percent.  This translates to fair odds of 40-1.

There’s a 60 percent chance the Kentucky Derby will be obtained by a horse who neglected to contest a single ranked bets route race because a juvenile.  When added to the 33% chance of a graded stakes route race winner prevailing in the Run for the Roses, this leaves only a 7% chance of victory to be split among all non-winning starters at the 17 graded stakes path races for juveniles.  Reasonable chances for these horses must generally exceed 100-1.

Armed with these statistics, I’ll establish 40-1 as the minimal odds I’ll accept to get a Kentucky Derby future wager. 

Eighteen horses have earned qualification points around the 2019-2020 Road to the Kentucky Derby. What channel is the Kentucky derby on, My honest odds for these Derby candidates are as follows:

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