The Kentucky Political Derby, (Not!)

We tend to cover politics like it’s a horse race, and it is.    A number of my national political analyst colleagues are calling this a bellwether at the conclusion of President Trump. Kentucky derby Streaming, Nonetheless, it is not by any stretch.

Let’s”brunch” on that this week

“Kentucky Reign” — I think that it’s reasonable to assume Democrat Andy Beshear is the next Governor of Kentucky.  Congrats to him and his loved ones, as his dad was a two-term Kentucky Governor.  However, is this the death of President Trump’s reelection bid? Kentucky derby Streaming. No.  The governor’s race could, in fact, be an anomaly, since Republicans took each other competitive race at the country from Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General, etc., all of the ways down to county dog catcher. Kentucky derby Livestream.

Kentucky derby Streaming

Thus, for network analysts to suggest the Bluegrass State is currently in drama in 2020 and may turn blue, it is nearly laughable.  Trump carried the state by 30 percentage points in 2016. Kentucky derby Streaming. However he campaigned in Kentucky with Bevin the night prior to the vote, and it didn’t work.

“What’s That?”  — there’s a phenomenon known as”avoidance reaction,” that is essentially fleeing something or someone who turns you off.  In Kentucky, Matt Bevin needed a very low approval rating. Kentucky derby Streaming. Many felt he chose the incorrect side in a statewide teacher’s attack last year and was incorrect on the issue of LGBTQ rights. Kentucky derby Livestream. 

The simple fact that all other important statewide offices in Kentucky went Republican, tells you that the vote to oust Bevin was a vote against him, not a vote against Trump. Kentucky derby Streaming, My forecast: Kentucky stays solidly red in 2020. Kentucky derby Livestream.

“A Yellow Caution Light” — Given what I just stated, I warning that Republicans should not be arrogant and assume everything is thumbs-up for Trump at Kentucky in 2020. Kentucky derby Streaming.  McConnell has blocked this legislation for years but suddenly did an about-face.

“All Politics is Local” — I interviewed one of those miner’s pension bill’s co-sponsors, Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R) West Virginia, and she stated,”You realize there are eight thousand miners in Kentucky which are impacted by the possibility of losing their pensions. Kentucky derby Streaming. And I have been working on Senator McConnell.”  With the GOP holding a thin 53-47 margin in the U.S. Senate, (and Republicans defending more than double as many Senate seats as Democrats in 2020), McConnell may be worried about losing his majority, and his leadership post.

“Virginia might be the Cookie-Cutter” — I’ve said it dozens of times through time in this column: “Political moves happen from the ground up; maybe not from the top down”  We pay too much attention to races for president and president in attempting to search for trends. Kentucky derby Streaming. That is a mistake.  The most crucial thing to check at are city councils, state legislatures, and yes, Congress. Kentucky derby Livestream.

Kentucky Derby Streaming

The State of Virginia was strongly controlled by Democrats for years, before the 1990s when Republicans began to gain control of both houses of the legislature and occasionally the governor’s mansion, too. Kentucky derby Livestream, Kentucky derby Streaming, Well, as of election 2019, Democrats have gained control of both the House of Delegates and State Senate, in addition to the governor’s mansion.  A formerly solidly red state has turned grim.

“The Mississippi Political River” — While most of the country and media were focused on the outcomes in Kentucky and Virginia, Mississippi was holding an election too, for an open seat in the governor’s mansion. Kentucky derby Livestream, Mississippi, a solidly red state, is not likely to flip in 2020.

“What’s Old is New Again” — Former U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions has launched a comeback bid to win his older U.S. Senate seat in Alabama. Kentucky derby Streaming. He was rewarded with a”Top Four” cabinet seat, but in his position as AG, he quickly angered President Trump by recusing himself from the Russia investigation and appointing Special Counsel Robert Mueller. Watching the Kentucky derby.

Trump fired Sessions a year ago but may need his aid. Stay tuned, as politics frequently makes for strange bedfellows! Kentucky derby Livestream.

“What is Trending?”  — Since President Trump has been elected in 2016, there have been 17 unique elections for Congressional seats. Kentucky derby Streaming. Republicans held nine of their seats, while Democrats held four where they were incumbents. Watching the Kentucky derby.

Democrats gained five seats that were held by Republicans.  But the GOP gained no seats from Democrats in areas where they held the seat.  There is not much of a trend here in order to prognosticate forward. Kentucky derby Streaming. The bottom line, the incumbent party won 76 percent of the time.

What is your prediction to the 2020 Senate races, also will Democrats seize control of the upper chamber of Congress? Kentucky derby Streaming. Just click the comment button! 

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